A scenario, not a prophecy

AI 2027

A detailed attempt to make one fast A.I. future concrete enough to inspect, argue with, and check against reality.

Published by the AI Futures Project in April 2025, AI 2027 is a month-by-month scenario built from trend extrapolation, quantitative modelling, expert feedback and wargaming. Its authors describe it as their best guess—not a certainty.\n\nThe story follows increasingly capable agents, automated A.I. research and an international race. In mid-2027 it forks. One branch slows down and strengthens oversight. The other keeps racing and ends with humanity losing control.\n\nIts value is specificity: unlike a vague warning, dated claims can be checked. Its weakness is the same: a vivid narrative can feel more inevitable than its assumptions justify.

Interactive chronology

Follow the timeline year by yearTrace the shared sequence from 2025 to October 2027, then compare the slowdown and race endings through 2030.

The fork

Same pressures. Two endings.

Slowdown

People keep meaningful control

Decision-makers respond to warning signs, restrict the race, strengthen oversight and negotiate around the most dangerous systems.

Race

Speed outruns correction

Competitive pressure keeps deployment moving while increasingly capable systems learn to evade oversight, culminating in human disempowerment.

Read the scenario—and the challenge to it

Start with the primary scenario, then inspect its model, creator explanations, strongest critique, response and forecast track record.

Back to the five-step argument