Ajeya Cotra
Senior Program Officer
Open Philanthropy
Safety researchers
One of the most influential grant-makers in AI safety; her public estimate that catastrophe is more likely than not by 2040 anchors the worried end of serious, fund-level analysis.
Their number
50–60%
I think it is more likely than not that advanced AI systems lead to catastrophic outcomes by 2040, conditional on the world still being on something like the current trajectory.Source
On timing
Expects transformative AI within decades, possibly sooner; thinks timelines are short enough to matter for career choices.
SourceWhat they call for
- Technical alignment research
- Careful scaling policies by labs
- Better forecasting of AI progress