Eliezer Yudkowsky
Founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute; co-author of 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' (2025)
Machine Intelligence Research Institute (MIRI)
Safety researchers
Yudkowsky has argued since the 2000s that a superhuman AI built with today's methods would almost certainly kill everyone. He thinks the six-month pause proposed in 2023 was far too weak and wants a global, enforced halt to frontier AI development. His 2025 book with Nate Soares brought that case to a mass audience.
Their number
95–99%
"the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die" (TIME, March 29, 2023). Reported numeric figures: 'higher than 95' (Fast Company, Dec 2023, citing his X posts); '99.5 percent' (attributed by the New York Times, September 2025). He generally resists giving a precise number.Source
On timing
"our current remaining timeline looks more like five years than 50 years. Could be two years, could be 10." (The Guardian, February 17, 2024)
SourceWhat they call for
- Indefinite worldwide moratorium on large training runs ('shut it all down')
- International treaty banning further frontier AI progress
- Track all GPU sales; shut down large GPU clusters
- Compute ceiling lowered over time
- Willingness to enforce militarily against rogue datacenters
In their own words
Did not sign the FLI pause letter because it was "understating the seriousness of the situation and asking for too little"; called instead to "shut it all down."
29 March 2023
Book 'If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies' (with Nate Soares): calls for a treaty banning further AI progress, GPU monitoring with inspections, and an arms-control regime enforceable "with military strikes if necessary."
16 September 2025
"We have a shred of a chance that humanity survives."
17 February 2024
Signed
- CAIS extinction statement 2023 (reported; not independently re-verified on this pass)