Gary Marcus
Cognitive scientist; NYU professor emeritus; author of 'Taming Silicon Valley' (2024); prominent LLM critic
New York University (emeritus)
Skeptics
Marcus is the best-known critic of the idea that today's chatbots are on the road to human-level intelligence—but he is not a doom-denier. He now puts his own catastrophe odds around 3%, mainly because of reckless deployment by powerful people, and wants an FDA-style agency, liability rules and audits.
Their number
3%
"My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people's. I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago, contemplating what a wealthy, reckless megalomaniac might in the worst circumstances do." Previously: extinction "vanishingly unlikely" though "catastrophe seemed likely." (Substack, July 15, 2025)Source
On timing
Long-standing view that LLMs are not a path to AGI and that scaling is hitting limits; expects a 'reality check' rather than imminent superintelligence (2024-2026 writings).
SourceWhat they call for
- A dedicated AI regulatory agency
- Liability for developers
- Independent auditing and standards of malpractice
- International treaties
- Pre deployment safety review
- 6 month pause (signed 2023 letter)
In their own words
"we have built machines that are like bulls in a China shop, powerful, reckless, and difficult to control" (Senate testimony alongside Altman).
16 May 2023
Calls for "serious regulation" including "liability, auditing, standards of malpractice, international treaties"; "we cannot rely on trust."
15 July 2025
Signed
- FLI pause letter 2023
- CAIS extinction statement 2023 (reported; not independently re-verified on this pass)