Gary Marcus

Cognitive scientist; NYU professor emeritus; author of 'Taming Silicon Valley' (2024); prominent LLM critic

New York University (emeritus)

Skeptics

Marcus is the best-known critic of the idea that today's chatbots are on the road to human-level intelligence—but he is not a doom-denier. He now puts his own catastrophe odds around 3%, mainly because of reckless deployment by powerful people, and wants an FDA-style agency, liability rules and audits.

Their number

3%

"My p(doom) is still lower than most industry people's. I am at maybe 3% now, much higher than a month ago, contemplating what a wealthy, reckless megalomaniac might in the worst circumstances do." Previously: extinction "vanishingly unlikely" though "catastrophe seemed likely." (Substack, July 15, 2025)
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On timing

Long-standing view that LLMs are not a path to AGI and that scaling is hitting limits; expects a 'reality check' rather than imminent superintelligence (2024-2026 writings).

Source

What they call for

  • A dedicated AI regulatory agency
  • Liability for developers
  • Independent auditing and standards of malpractice
  • International treaties
  • Pre deployment safety review
  • 6 month pause (signed 2023 letter)

In their own words

  • "we have built machines that are like bulls in a China shop, powerful, reckless, and difficult to control" (Senate testimony alongside Altman).

    16 May 2023

    Source

  • Calls for "serious regulation" including "liability, auditing, standards of malpractice, international treaties"; "we cannot rely on trust."

    15 July 2025

    Source

Signed

  • FLI pause letter 2023
  • CAIS extinction statement 2023 (reported; not independently re-verified on this pass)

Last verified 1 September 2026

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