Geoffrey Hinton

Deep-learning pioneer; 2018 Turing Award; 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics; left Google in 2023 to speak freely about AI risk

University of Toronto (Professor Emeritus)

Forefathers of the field

Hinton helped invent the neural-network techniques behind today's AI, then quit Google in 2023 so he could warn about it. He puts the odds that AI wipes out humanity in the next few decades at roughly one in five to one in ten, says superintelligence could arrive within five to twenty years, and argues only government regulation—not market forces—will make companies take safety seriously.

Their number

10–20%

"there is a 10% to 20% chance that AI wipes out humans" (Ai4 conference, Las Vegas, August 12, 2025, reported by CNN Business August 13, 2025). He first gave the figure on BBC Radio 4's Today programme on December 27, 2024 — "10 to 20 [per cent]" over "the next three decades" — and repeated 10–20% at the Sana AI Summit, New York, June 2026.
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On timing

Superintelligence: "A reasonable bet is sometime between five and 20 years" (Ai4, August 2025). In June 2026 he said AI will outstrip the world's best mathematicians within a decade and "it's going to get much more intelligent than us — that's my guess."

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What they call for

  • Government regulation of frontier labs
  • Mandatory safety research by companies
  • International agreement on AI red lines
  • Prohibition on superintelligence until safety consensus
  • Build AI that 'cares about' people ('maternal instincts')
  • Whistleblower protections for AI employees

In their own words

  • "The only thing that can force those big companies to do more research on safety is government regulation." / "My worry is that the invisible hand is not going to keep us safe."

    27 December 2024

    Source

  • "The right model is the only model we have of a more intelligent thing being controlled by a less intelligent thing, which is a mother being controlled by her baby" — arguing for building 'maternal instincts' into AI.

    12 August 2025

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  • "What we've got now is this competitive race between companies to make the smartest possible AI that can do the most things... That's going to lead to things that aren't nice beings towards us." / "We're making these beings, and we should be very concerned to make them beings that care about us."

    2026-06

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Signed

  • CAIS extinction statement 2023
  • Right to Warn letter 2024 (endorser)
  • Global Call for AI Red Lines 2025
  • FLI Statement on Superintelligence 2025

Last verified 1 September 2026

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