Holden Karnofsky

Co-founder and former co-CEO

Open Philanthropy

Safety researchers

Co-architect of the most-important-century case: that we may live in the hinge of history because AI is likely to transform everything within our lifetimes.

Their number

10–30%

I put the chance of an AI-related catastrophe this century at more than 1 in 10.
Source

On timing

Argues transformative AI this century is more likely than not, and possibly within the next decade or two.

Source

What they call for

  • Massive expansion of alignment research
  • Standards and evaluation regimes for frontier models
  • Funder and lab norms for caution

Last verified 5 September 2026

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