Jan Leike
Alignment researcher; former co-lead of OpenAI's Superalignment team (resigned May 2024); now leads alignment at Anthropic
Anthropic (formerly OpenAI)
Safety researchers
Leike ran OpenAI's team tasked with controlling superhuman AI and quit in 2024 saying safety had 'taken a backseat to shiny products'. He now leads alignment work at Anthropic. He has agreed with a 10-90% range for catastrophe—essentially saying the honest answer is deep uncertainty.
Their number
10–90%
When host Rob Wiblin said his own p(doom) was 'more than 10%, less than 90%', Leike replied: "Yeah, I think that's probably the range I would give too." (80,000 Hours Podcast, August 7, 2023) — note this is agreement with an interviewer's range, not an independently volunteered figure.Source
On timing
Superintelligence "could arrive this decade" (OpenAI Superalignment framing, 2023); "systems could get a lot smarter or a lot more capable over the next few years."
SourceWhat they call for
- Labs to devote serious compute and priority to alignment
- Safety culture over product speed
- Scalable oversight and automated alignment research
In their own words
Signed
- CAIS extinction statement 2023 (reported; not independently re-verified on this pass)