Roman Yampolskiy

Computer scientist; director of the Cyber Security Laboratory; author of 'AI: Unexplainable, Unpredictable, Uncontrollable'

University of Louisville

Safety researchers

Yampolskiy is the academic with the most extreme published estimate—essentially certainty that uncontrolled superintelligence would end humanity—because he argues a permanently safe superintelligence is as impossible as a perpetual-motion machine. He wants narrow AI only and a permanent ban on general superintelligence.

Their number

99.9–100%

"99.999999%" chance AI wipes out humanity (Business Insider / TechRadar, April 2024); on Lex Fridman (June 3, 2024) he described an "almost 100% chance that AGI will eventually destroy human civilization" and endorsed the '99.99 and many more nines percent' figure.
Source

On timing

Cites prediction markets pointing to AGI around 2026, which he calls "very soon given we don't have a working safety mechanism in place" (June 2024).

Source

What they call for

  • Pause until safety can be demonstrated, becoming a permanent ban on general superintelligence
  • Narrow AI only
  • International agreement on AI red lines

In their own words

  • "Pause until you can do X, Y, Z. And if I'm right and you cannot, it's impossible, then it becomes a permanent ban."

    3 June 2024

    Source

  • Responding to Musk's 10-20% estimate: "Not sure why he thinks it is a good idea to pursue this technology anyway."

    7 April 2024

    Source

Signed

  • Global Call for AI Red Lines 2025

Last verified 1 September 2026

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